Pat Riley built this year’s Miami Heat team with a trip to the NBA Finals in mind.
Fans believe that if they stay healthy, the Heat can compete with Cleveland for the Eastern Conference Championship.
But if Miami does return to the NBA Finals this season, it will be through a path rarely traveled in the NBA.
During the summer, Heat owner Micky Arison re-tweeted a link to an article that celebrated the Miami Heat having five players in the top 100 of Sports Illustrated’s NBA player rankings.
All five starters are projected in the top 100. The same is true of ESPN’s NBA player rankings:
22. Chris Bosh
38. Goran Dragic
46. Dwyane Wade
68. Hassan Whiteside
92. Luol Deng
This is good. It proves the Heat are projected to have a well-balanced lineup. However, the 2015-16 Miami Heat are missing something that most NBA title contenders have: A top 20 player.
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All the favorites to win the championship this year have, at minimum, one player in the top 20, and most have one in the top 10. The defending champion warriors have three top 20 players.
This doesn’t mean the Heat can’t make it to finals. But in a league dominated by stars, history is not on their side. Just look at the teams that have reached the NBA Finals over last 20 years. Even the teams that lost had at least one top 20 player in that particular season.
The Heat know this from their own finals appearances. Whether it was Wade and Shaq or Wade and LeBron, the Heat took a more traditional star-driven path.
The only exception in recent history might be the 2004-2005 Detroit Pistons. They’re probably the closest comparison to this year’s Heat. Chauncey Billups was a borderline top 20 player, and all of their starters were top 100 players.
Chris Bosh is the Heat’s highest ranked player this year and he quickly interrupted me when I mentioned this historical hurdle.
"We got me and Dwyane, what else do you need? If that’s not superstars, you tell me what is?” Bosh said. “Having a superstar is a luxury and we have two luxuries."
Head Coach Erik Spoelstra had a different reason why he’s not concerned about a lack of top ranked talent.
“It’s a team game. This is not boxing, it’s not tennis. Can any of our players make another player a top five player or a top 10 player for segments of the game? It doesn’t have to be for an entire season," he said.
He’s right. If Bosh or Wade or Whiteside significantly outperform their projections, the Heat could end up with a top 20 player. And it certainly doesn’t hurt that two of those players have been elite NBA superstars in the past.
