Florida

NBC 6 Chief Meteorologist John Morales on TS Erika for Friday, August 28

Friday is the pivotal day in Erika's lifetime. We always knew Danny had 3 strikes against it. But Erika had only two (dry air & shear), until now.

The third strike may be the terrain of Hispaniola, which includes Pico Duarte at over 10,000 feet. The storm is discombobulated, with all of the rain and stronger wind gusts to the east and south of the still exposed (devoid of thunderstorms) center of circulation.

Past experience tells us that disorganized storms often get ripped apart by mountains. Yet Erika, at the moment I write this, continues over water just south of the Dominican Republic's southern coast. It's still producing tropical storm force winds mainly in squalls.

NHC has for 3 days now been forecasting a turn to the northwest (because that's what the models have been showing). Instead, the storm's northern side is so weak that center has been guided by the east-to-west trade winds. Does that change Friday?

Looking at the latest trends it does look like Erika's center will make landfall near the city of Santo Domingo. For the Dominican Republic (more than Haiti) this means the risk of several inches of rain. Puerto Rico saw only an inch or two, but it was on Erika's drier northern semi-circle. The DR would see more of the dirty side of the storm, and possibly have the system's "tail" linger over the country through the night and into Saturday. While some wind gusts as high as 55 MPH are possible, the biggest risk there will be flash flooding.

Meanwhile, with aircraft reconnaissance unable to fly missions into Erika due to the high peaks of Hispaniola, we may not get "ground truth" as to what's left of Erika when she finally leaves the Antilles until late Friday night.

Satellite images will give us some hints, but that hasn't been a good tool due to the disorganized nature of the storm. If Erika is still a viable tropical cyclone tonight and tomorrow morning, then it's "game-on" for the Bahamas and Florida.

But here's the good news: models seem to finally be catching up to reality. While the model tracks mostly point to a landfall in Florida, they've backed off on their intensity projections. Not a single model that brings the storm to Florida brings it as a hurricane.

If you've been paying attention, you know NHC will follow suit and therefore forecast a tropical storm making landfall in Florida and not a hurricane. A Tropical Storm Watch would be issued as early as Friday night, and a Warning on Saturday for a possible Erika landfall late Sunday night.

While this is an inconvenience and some safety precautions are required, it would be a much different situation than having to experience a landfalling hurricane.

So let's see what's left of Erika after Hispaniola. Don't forget that if it's still a depression or storm, there is very warm water in the Bahamas and north of Cuba, so we cannot let our guard down (remember, reality versus models).

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