JACKSONVILLE , Fla — This was Newt Gingrich’s last chance to shine on the big stage before Tuesday. It did not go as hoped.
Gingrich and Mitt Romney were supposed to be the main attractions, but Rick Santorum and Ron Paul won notice at the 19th GOP debate, hosted by CNN at the University of North Florida in Jacksonville.
Below are POLITICO’s seven takeaways:
1) This was the “Trading Places” debate
For a 120 minutes, Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich essentially traded roles — Romney, often meek and shrill-sounding as he defended himself this cycle, became the aggressor, and Gingrich, who’s played the debate hall crowd like a musical instrument in the past, seemed to shrink from the attacks.
Romney came with balled-up fists to the debate stage, and swung hard at Gingrich during the first few questions — in the exact fashion that the former House Speaker has typically gone at the front-runner.
It worked. Romney had the thing that has eluded him most this cycle — a “moment.”
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The former Massachusetts governor, apparently having gotten the message that Florida’s outcome could be political life or death for him, slammed Gingrich hard for a now-pulled radio ad in which he described Romney as “anti-immigrant.” A newly-confident Romney called the charge “repulsive” and even demanded an apology.
The crowd, in its first roar of the night, loved it — and Romney was off and running.
Even if there were moments where Romney could have hit Gingrich even harder — he left the former House Speaker’s support for the individual health care mandate untouched, for instance — he still gave the most confident answer he’s given to date on being proud of his successes, sounding something close to comfortable, for the first time, discussing his wealth.
Nevertheless, he made mistakes — saying “I have a trustee” and declaring he’s never voted for a Democrat if a Republican was also on the ballot were among them, neither of which were necessary to say or helpful to his cause. Two other fumbles: His “doubting” that a negative ad against Gingrich is being aired by his campaign (it is) and his answer on taxes, which got very in the weeds about his money manager.
But it’s the first half-hour of almost every GOP debate that’s set the tone for the rest — so the debate counts as a victory for Romney, who needed to keep the momentum from moving away from him again.
2) Whither Gingrich?
It was Gingrich who needed to recapture his momentum and he simply couldn’t do it.
For someone who has made performances in debates central to his candidacy, this was an unusual night.
The former House Speaker, appealingly pugnacious to GOP voters in past debates, simply seemed worn out and off point. Gone was the brawler who could whip up the crowd. And it’s not quite clear where he went.
He never raised any of the well-worn phrases he’s used to define Mitt Romney on the stump — “Massachusetts moderate” comes to mind. He also bypassed an opportunity to hit Romney over his Massachusetts health-care plan.
Gingrich’s pushback against Romney over the immigration issue simply failed to connect. He initially tried to avoid repeating his criticisms of Romney’s now-closed Swiss bank account on the debate stage — something he’s hit him for on the trail in the last few days — and attempted to retreat toward defending the entire GOP field from the mainstream media’s divisive questions.
But it was Romney who scored points on Gingrich by turning a question against him, and asking if the former House Speaker knew what was in his own investment holdings. Gingrich barely responded.
The former House Speaker also entirely skipped chances to point out when Romney made eyebrow-raising statements — like that he never voted for Paul Tsongas, or when the candidate was called out by moderator Wolf Blitzer for saying his campaign wasn’t behind a specific negative ad about Gingrich when it turns out it was.
Even some of his more locally calibrated pitches — like a lunar colony, which would appears to Florida’s Space Coast — didn’t go off 100 percent well. He seemed to gain some of his mojo back in the second half of the debate, but it was a bit late then. And his use of the words “three wives” during a discussion of the candidates’ spouses as prospective first ladies was squirm-inducing.
Gingrich, visibly unhappy at points, did not seem to be enjoying the heat of battle as in past debates. It may be that he believes the polls that suggest he has already peaked, or it may be that he is weary of attack ads that his less cash-flush campaign is having trouble answering.
Whatever the reason, this was not A-game Gingrich, who has used debates to pivot to strength. For a candidate who has cited his strength in debates as an electability factor and who needed to get his momentum back, this wasn’t a strong night.
3) The crowd was with Romney
Gingrich got what he wanted — a noisy crowd — after the audience was silenced in Monday night’s NBC News debate. Unfortunately for him, the crowd preferred Romney.
It’s hard to overstate how significant this was.
The crowd helped set the tone early on, noisily cheering for Romney after he derided Gingrich over the “anti-immigrant” claim. It was some of the loudest cheering Romney has gotten in any debate, and it largely came at Gingrich’s expense.
Many wondered whether Romney packed the debate hall with supporters; even if he did, he would hardly be the first candidate to so — it’s what well-run campaigns usually do.
Gingrich was never totally able to find his groove with this crowd, which was sitting in Jacksonville, a Romney stronghold. He seemed to try to tailor some of his statements at different points to the crowd, but it was never a perfect fit.
He got some applause here and there, even some strong applause at certain points. But Gingrich’s ability to draw energy from the fiery crowd was thwarted, and it was once again clear how much he uses the audience to shape his debate performances.
4) Rick Santorum’s got game
We’ve said before that there’s no reason for Santorum to drop out of the race any time soon, and Thursday night’s debate was another reminder of why.
Santorum turned in another strong debate performance, and shined in areas where Gingrich failed to.
It was Santorum who brought the toughest attack against Romney over Massachusetts health care. Every time Romney pushed back, Santorum went back at him — underscoring every time that he thinks the former Massachusetts governor would have a hard time distinguishing himself against President Obama in the fall.
He also successfully tethered Gingrich to Romney over the issue of an individual health care mandate.
Romney called him “angry,” but GOP voters — for whom Obamacare remains a red flag and a major base-motivator — may not quite see it that way, and could be offended by Romney’s characterization.
Santorum sounded sincere and emotional as he talked about his wife and why he thought she would make a good first lady, and as he talked about his faith. In fact, it’s safe to say that on overall points, Santorum won the debate, although it was Romney who had the standout moment.
Santorum is barely making a play in Florida, and he is leaving the state this weekend to go home and handle his taxes — essentially ceding the stage to Romney and Gingrich. But he has been presenting himself in this race as a more “consistent” conservative alternative to Gingrich, and someone who can match Romney on leadership.
If Florida voters are unhappy with either of the top tier choices, Santorum could look like a palatable option — especially after the debate.
Now, with the next contests spread out over a handful of states in February, there’s little reason for Santorum to decide to leave the race.
5) Ron Paul was a crowd-pleaser
That does not mean he was giving serious answers to questions.
The Texas congressman laughed it up as he made quips about going for a 25-mile bike ride to prove he is in good health, and said the first thing he’d ask of Cuba’s leader if he called was what he wanted to talk about.
This version of Paul is the same one who showed up at the NBC News debate last Monday, in which he frantically waved his arms at one point to mock moderator Brian Williams for not calling on him to answer a question on abortion.
And this version focuses a bit less on wonky policy points, although he did talk about fiscal issues at the beginning of the debate, dismissing a question about Romney’s and Gingrich’s personal wealth with a line about how it’s not a subject that interests him.
The class-clown version of Paul has made for some good debate theater. It doesn’t really advance him to any new position in the GOP primary, but he’s skipping Florida, and his fan base doesn’t really care if he is a bit goofy on stage sometimes.
6) Wolf Blitzer refused to be John King
King got a memorable beat-down from Gingrich at the start of the last CNN debate, a few days before the South Carolina primary. Gingrich rode an anti-mainstream media wave of applause from the GOP crowd that night, and King retreated from asking any further questions about allegations from Gingrich’s second wife.
Blitzer refused to play that role.
He pushed Gingrich to explain comments he’d made on the stump about Romney’s wealth. When Gingrich looked exasperated, Blitzer continued.
And when Blitzer got heckled for asking Gingrich a question about his tax plan related to what Romney pays, the moderator charged forward, saying it was a legitimate line of inquiry.
This all made his usual gambit — turning the debate format into a successful tactical point — — a bit difficult for Gingrich, who has used the media as a foil for months.
7) The pause in debates is coming at just the right moment
After a season of what felt like dozens of debates, there are no more scheduled until Feb. 22 — when CNN hosts another event, this time in Arizona in advance of that state’s primary.
That marks the longest pause in the action after 19 debates that have heavily driven the narrative of the GOP primary.
It’s a timely pause, given that, after so many of these face-offs, there really are no major, relevant questions left to ask of the remaining four GOP hopefuls. What more can voters possibly learn about the candidates that they haven’t heard in the six that have been held since Jan. 4?
Romney, in particular, may be in a bind when it comes to skipping future debates since his team once sent out a memo talking about how “debates matter” — which was, ironically, aimed at Rick Perry, who isn’t even in the race anymore.
But there is something to the complaint from the candidates that the glut of debates has meant they are becoming repetitive at best, and Coliseum-type fights at worst.
