Florida

Track Puts Hurricane Matthew Uncomfortably Close to Florida

Matthew became a major hurricane Friday in the southern Caribbean just north of the Guajira Peninsula of Colombia.

Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect there (a rare occurrence) for effects from the side-swipe of the cyclone. The 115 MPH winds would stay well away from Colombia.

Matthew has been able to strengthen despite the presence of moderate southwesterly upper level wind shear and a bit of dry air to its northwest. There is a chance that it may peak in intensity Friday and weaken over the next day and a half or two but -- as you can tell -- there is little skill in tropical cyclone intensity forecasts.

The hurricane has been moving south of due west for the last 24 hours, pushed (or kept) into the southern Caribbean Sea by a strong area of high pressure located north of the Greater Antilles. This high is expected to weaken and retreat into the Atlantic as a deep trough of low pressure dips into the Gulf of Mexico.

That process would open up a lane for Matthew to start moving in a general northerly direction. The timing of the interaction between the trough, the high, and the cyclone is crucial, as is the speed at which it turns and moves towards Jamaica and Cuba.

Therefore the exact nature of this turn is still unknown, although Friday there is greater consensus among models that the track past Cuba would be into the north or central Bahamas and not into Florida. However, that could easily change.

While the European (historically the most reliable global model) and the UK Met model have a track closer to Haiti and the southern Bahamas (up to Thursday night's runs), the American GFS, the Canadian, the Japanese, and the U.S. Navy models all have a track uncomfortably close to Florida, with the eye of a powerful hurricane possibly striking Andros Island or even Nassau in New Providence Island. That is 200 miles or less away from Miami.

And the GFS has had a general trend towards the west for several days, as it originally had Matthew turning into the Dominican Republic a few days back.

There are other meteorological factors down the road, like the weakening departure of the Gulf trough, the rebuilding of the Atlantic high, and the advance of yet another trough currently in the western United States, that could play a role in the eventual track of Matthew past the Bahamas. That's why some members of the ECMWF European ensemble model (they run the model 50 times with varying initialization to see what small variations could cause in the eventual forecast) show a track into Florida.

The vast majority of the models, however, do keep the storm away from Florida. But it's a close shave right now, too close for comfort. The official NHC forecast "cone" has shifted west, as I've been predicting on the air, and now basically touches Miami.

NHC continues to declare their low level of confidence in their forecasts, reminding everyone of their average 5-day error of 230 miles on their hurricane track forecasts. In addition, NHC at 11 a.m. stated: "It is too soon to rule out possible hurricane impacts from Matthew in Florida."

So please stay tuned on air and online. Adam Berg and I will have First Alert Weather Team coverage on NBC 6 from 4 to 6:30 p.m. and then again I'll be on at 11 p.m. with the latest advisory and updated track.

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