Tonight's Dolphins-Pats matchup in Miami isn't just a big deal because it's Monday Night Football.

It's a big deal because it's season-defining: win, and the Dolphins both notch a division victory and head confidently into a difficult stretch 3-1, or lose and drop two games behind in the AFC East, playing out the schedule in a cloak of uncertainty and terrible morale and a tiny little raincloud hovering over each player, coach, staff member, and waterboy.

But, you know, other than that, it's no big deal.

Details: 8:20 p.m. on ESPN from Sun Life Stadium

Heartwarming Piece of Statistical Encouragement: Tom Brady is 3-5 at Sun Life Stadium, and that was before his bangs were in his eyes. Last year, New England was 1-6 on the road.

More Good News: The Patriots don't have much of a pass rush -- they're ranked a lowly 25th against the pass -- so Chad Henne's got that going for him coming off a career-high 363 passing yards against the Jets last week.

Henne's first career 300-yard passing game came in last year's 22-21 win over the Patriots, and for a running team, the Dolpins looked pretty comfortable passing last week.  If Carson Palmer can throw for 350 yards against the Pats, and Ryan Fitzpatrick complete 71% of his passes to the Bills... the Robot should do just fine.

Fun and Mildly Terrifying Matchup: Randy Moss and Vontae Davis/Sean Smith/Jason Allen.

Fun and Totally Awesome Matchup: Brandon Marshall vs. the Patriots terrible, terrible secondary.

Not Fun Matchup At All: Ronnie and Ricky vs. the Patriots run D. Last year, the Patriots held the Dolphins to 3.9 yards per carry, and this year's offensive line isn't last year's. Well, it is, mostly, but somehow they're worse.

Thing We Say Every Week and Would Like To Tattoo On Every Dolphin's Forehead: STOP THE TIGHT END(S). Of course, if the Dolphins couldn't managed that against the Jets, here's guessing they'll have trouble with Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski.

[Somewhere, Tony Gonzalez is still scoring on the Dolphins.]

Most Important Players: Cameron Wake and Koa Misi. Tom Brady isn't easily rattled, so the Dolphins must be effective in pressure. If Wake and Misi can do it without help, the Dolphins won't have to send guys up front, leaving lighter coverage on Brady's considerable targets.

"Expert" Predictions: Adam Schefter, Peter King, Joe Theismann, Mike Florio, Jason Cole, and Brian Baldinger are going Fins up.

Cris Carter, Gregg Rosenthal, Chris Mortensen, Pete Prisco, Tom Jackson, and Sterling Sharpe like the Patriots.

Pick: With renewed confidence in Miami's passing game, this should make for an entertaining shootout of sorts with an smorgasboard of deep gambles. Anyone would pick Tom Brady in that matchup, but the Dolphins will be too much and too desperate at home, and Chad Henne just enough. Dolphins 31, Patriots 27.