Giancarlo Stanton and the Miami Marlins are working on a contract to keep him in town for years to come but it is full of risk.
One one side of the talks is Stanton who has not faced live pitching since taking a fastball to his face. The 25-year old narrowly avoided injuries that could have impacted his career and life. A little to the left or right and things could have been dramatically different. The injuries sustained were serious enough to end Stanton's season which possibly cost him the Most Valuable Player award.
Stanton does not have to only think of hypothetical situations, there is evidence in the history of sports that shows how a bright future can come to an end in a blink of an eye. It is likely that Stanton could make the most money by entering the free agent market and he also could choose his destination. However, there are no guarantees and the slugger is likely aware of this.
In 1967, a 22-year old outfielder for the Boston Red Sox came to the plate. His name was Tony Conigliaro and he was one of the brightest young stars in the game. His 32 home runs in 1965 led the American League. His numbers show a sign of a potential Hall of Famer and look similar to those of Stanton in his early years.
Then Conigliaro was hit in the face with a pitch that damaged the retina in his left eye among several other major injuries. He would miss the rest of the year and then the following season before returning. It was a brief return however as lingering issues from the injury cut short his promising career.
Stanton does not even need to go that far back for an example nor does he need to leave his own organization. Back in 2005, Adam Greenberg who at the time was a prospect for the Chicago Cubs stepped up to the plate for his first big league at-bat. On the mound was Valerio de los Santos of the Florida Marlins. Greenberg had worked his whole life to get to this moment.
The first pitch thrown to Greenberg promptly hit him in the back of the head. The prospect went down and just like that, all that work was gone. All those dreams of stardom and financial stability vanished in an instant. Greenberg would suffer from vertigo and would struggle to return despite numerous attempts. As a hit-by-pitch does not count as an official at-bat, Greenberg was listed as 0-0 in the record books.
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In 2012, the Marlins gave Greenberg a Major League at-bat after a campaign that made national headlines. He would attempt to return the following year as well before hanging up his spikes for good. Seven years after he began what could have been a long big league career, Greenberg ended up with one single at-bat because of that fateful day back in 2005.
Kevin Olsen is a name that is forgotten by many but he was a member of the 2003 World Series championship team in Florida. Olsen was on the mound on June 27, 2003 at Fenway Park in Boston. A line drive came back to the mound and hit Olsen in the head. It was a scary incident as Olsen was carted off. The young pitcher would return in September but would never throw another Major League pitch after that season.
Olsen was only 26 years old and had showed a lot of promise in 2001 when he made his big league debut. He could have settled into a relief role for years to come but instead was forced out of the game by one brief moment.
One injury was even worse than the others listed here, it was fatal. In 1920, Ray Chapman of the Cleveland Indians was hit in the head with a pitch. Chapman would die from the injury that day. All it took was one pitch and Chapman's career and life came to an end due to the unfortunate location.
With these and other injuries in mind, Stanton and his agent are in a position where they have to weigh the risk of waiting until free agency with the security of a contract. A shorter term deal is only the route to go if you know nothing tragic is on the horizon. These men found out the hard way that everything you think will happen can disappear as fast as a line drive home run off of Stanton's bat.
For the Marlins, there is a lot of risk as well. They have not seen Stanton take an official at-bat since the devastating injury and have no way of knowing if it will have an adverse effect on his game. While it is likely Stanton will return to form, it is no guarantee until it is seen. Physically the young star should be fine but a lot of baseball is mental as well.
Not only is there risk for the team based on the previous injury but the potential for a future injury. Just because Stanton was hit in the head already does not mean it can't happen again. Other career altering injuries such as torn ligaments are always in play. Stanton is a player that gives his all on the field and this can often lead to serious injuries over the course of a career.
The money offered by the Marlins would be guaranteed regardless of injury or production drop off. Stanton will see that money regardless of if the team sees the statistical benefit of it. For a franchise with a tight budget, the dollar amounts being thrown around are potentially crippling without the anticipated production from Stanton
It remains likely that Stanton and the Marlins will come to terms on an extension. The length of the deal will determine which side is taking the bigger risk..
