Rookie Monster
Randy Moss: also a rookie nightmare.
Getty Images
FOXBORO, MA - OCTOBER 08: Tom Brady #12 of the New England Patriots moves to pass against the Miami Dolphins during their game at Gillette Stadium in Foxboro, Massachusetts on October 8, 2006. (Photo by Al Bello/Getty Images)
It was a little more than a year ago that the Dolphins unleashed the Wildcat and embarassed -- er, stunned -- New England, 38-13. The reigning AFC champs went down like a sweet muffin in the face of Ronnie Brown's 30 points, the world's axis was reset, and the Dolphins went on to take the East division.
It won't be so easy today at 1:00.
The Pats have three-time Super Bowl winner Tom Brady back, and the Dolphins sport two rookies, Sean Smith and Vontae Davis, at corner now that Will Allen's injured. The duo front a pair of safeties with an oft-visited second home in Craptown, suplemented by another rookie, Chris Clemons. Though everyone held their own against the Jets last week, Mark Sanchez, Brady is not. And then there's Randy Moss and Wes Welker.
It could get ugly.
Still, the Dolphins are one of the most physical teams in the league, and they're unanimous underdogs -- which is just how they like it. (Oh, sure, they go on about respect, but they play best without a chance.) To win, they must stay close to the Patriots and finally put together the complete game they couldn't against the Saints and Colts.
They must establish the run. How obvious can this be? But the Wildcat won't be a surprise this time, and the Dolphins need to take advantage of the Patriot's average run D. The difficulty for the Dolphins isn't in Ricky Williams or Ronnie Brown, it's in staying close enough on the scoreboard that they aren't forced to take to the air to play catch up. The offense needs to be effective every time its on the field, and the run is its strength. Of course, Bill Belichick has had two weeks to prepare and wants nothing more than to force the Dolphins to use their, um, not exactly stellar receiving corps.
They must get pressure. Miami has pinned more losses on New England than everyone but the Bills, and Brady's 13 interceptions against Miami are his highest total against any opponent. His yards per attempt and quarterback rating lows are against...the Dolphins. It's all about pressure. And though the Pats' potent offfense has gone largely untouched again this season -- they've been sacked the 3rd fewest times in the league -- Jason Taylor has long been a thorn in the side of the Pats, and New England will be missing its starting left tackle Matt Light.
So you're tell us there's a chance...
They must help the offense. Interception, fumble recovery, special teams, second coming of Christ, whatever: Miami needs a boost or two or three from defense or special teams. While Sean Smith and Vontae Davis will only be so effective against Randy Moss and Wes Welker, both have good hands. Look down at your own and cross some fingers.
Big game, please: Randy Starks. The Dolphins' DE had the game of his career last week, and though he's in rotation he's been heroicly disruptive in key moments. He'll line up against rookie LT Sebastian Vollmer today.
Pass-rushing dervish Cameron Wake is a close second.
What's at stake: Miami is now 3-0 in the division. With the easiest schedule in the East following this game, and the hardest going to the Pats down the stretch, a 3-4 Miami could actually make a move for the AFC East today.
Out: nose tackle Jason Ferguson and inside linebacker Channing Crowder.
Line: New England by 10.
Shock: it's only 10.
Posted Sunday, Nov 8, 2009 - 8:25 AM EST
