"It's a risky strategy," Rove said on Fox News Sunday. "She marches to the beat of her own drum and it's going to be very interesting to see how she pulls this off."
Palin announced her resignation outside her Wasilla home on Friday, citing finances, family and a desire to take on leadership and advocacy roles outside of government. The abrupt decision that reportedly took her own father-in-law by surprise, led to speculation that she might be planning bigger things.
Rove, former political adviser to Bush, said if Palin's got her eye on the White House her exit from state politics is not going to help her cause. Her resignation takes effect on July 26, 18 months shy of her term's end.
"She had the excuse of being able to say, 'I'm the governor. I've got things that I've got to do.' Now people are going to be clamoring for her and the expectations are gong to be out of sight," Rove said.
If her resignation is a maneuver to protect her family from the media scrutiny they've attracted since her VP nomination put them in the spotlight during the presidential race last fall, a reprieve from politics won't make the attention go away, Rove said.
"She's not going to be able to do it," Rove said. "The media -- if she wants to run for government -- will be following her intensely for the next three years."
But Rove said without a clear motive Palin is confusing the public and her colleagues, defying most effective political strategies.
"I'm a fan of Sarah Palin's, but effective strategies in politics are ones that are so clear and obvious that people can grasp it . It is not clear what her strategy here is by exiting the governorship 2-1/2 years through the term and putting herself on the national stage that she may not yet be prepared to operate in."