Charlie's Got a Chance to Win: Experts

Governor is not out of the race as independent, experts say

Florida Governor Charlie Crist turned the race for the U.S. Senate upside down Thursday when he announced he'll be running as an independent.

No sooner did Crist make the announcement than the pundits began to size him up against opponents, and somewhat surprisingly, experts said the Governor made a smart calculated political move by getting out of a primary race he couldn't win.

One poll done in the middle of the month showed Marco Rubio beating the Governor for the Republican nomination by more that 20 points -- not even close.

Clearly Rubio has momentum with Conservatives and pushes the message that caused a sitting Governor to walk away from the party he once called home.

Thursday, Rubio was out with supporters in Coral Gables, trying to ride that momentum he's built up since late last year.

He later appeared on several shows to criticize Crist's decision.

"I do think it's appropriate for people to ask for their money back and I hope the campaign does the right thing and refunds them," Rubio said of donations made to Crist by Republicans.

"I am not surprised," said former Gov. Jeb Bush in a statement. "This decision is not about policy or principals, it is about what he, Crist, believes is in his political self interest."

But one poll indicates in a three horse race, Crist is in front with 32 percent, Rubio a close second, and Democrat Kendrick Meek in third with 24 percent.

Political experts said Crist does have an excellent chance to win.

"He is more than a credible candidate here, in some ways I view him as the favorite," said UM political expert John Anderson. "It'll be very interesting to see how the dynamic plays itself out, is it that Crist takes more from a Democrat, and in that way gives an advantage to Rubio? Or does Crist end up taking more from Rubio?"

One thing that can help Meek is the overall higher volume of registered Democrats across the state.

Registered Democrats outnumber Republicans by 750,000 voters and that could be crucial.

"I don't think that it's going to make a big difference," Meek said after yesterday's Crist announcement. "I can tell you that when we get to the general election, I am looking forward to running against two Republicans in the general election, the Governor is still going to be the Republican Governor of the state of Florida."

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