Miami

Harvard Study Picks Dolphins as Best in AFC

The Dolphins haven't begun playing games yet but a Harvard study has lofty expectations for them

Fueled by a busy off-season, the Miami Dolphins should be an improved team and perhaps the best team in the AFC, according to a Harvard study.

The study was done by Kurt Bullard of the Harvard Sports Analysis Collective. This organization is run by students at the prestigious university. 

The end-result of the study had the Dolphins as the third best team in the NFL, and at the top of the pyramid in the AFC. Only the Green Bay Packers and Seattle Seahawks sat atop the Dolphins. Miami has not won a playoff game in 15 years.

Bullard explained the math and thinking behind a formula used in the study. Of note was his in-depth thoughts on the effect of age on a team's production.  Often times players regress as they get older, and at the same time there is improvement in younger players who are reaching their prime. While no model or formula is perfect, Bullard worked to make this one as accurate as possible.

"This model does not account for aging, but I make the assumption that in aggregating these AV totals, the positive and negative effects of aging on an individual will, for a team, net out to around zero. So this model favors aging teams and may hinder up-and-coming teams," said Bullard.

In terms of odds of simply making the playoffs, Miami is listed with a 77% chance according to the study. The Dolphins have not participated in the postseason since 2008, and have gone through a myriad of changes since then.

"The Dolphins may finally dethrone the Patriots in the AFC East, boasting the third-highest probability of playing into January, fifteen percentage points above defending-champion New England," Bullard said.

The Dolphins will kick off the preseason on August 13th at Soldier Field against the Chicago Bears.

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