An active hurricane season means plenty of work for the National Hurricane Center, which is based in Miami. That’s where you’ll find a team of experienced forecasters, who are adopting the lessons learned from Hurricane Irma and are looking for ways to get even better.
For 25 years, South Florida had dodged a direct hit from a major hurricane until Irma made landfall as a category four storm last year. But thanks to the work of experts with more tools than ever, forecasting is the best that it has ever been.
“The models did pretty well for Irma, especially showing that it would be a threat for South Florida. The issue was the details, was it an east coast or west coast threat,” said Daniel Brown, a warning coordination meteorologist at the National Hurricane Center.
With the help of more powerful satellites, a constant stream of data and the heroics of hurricane hunters who fly into storms, Brown is helping take as much uncertainty out of storm tracking as possible.
“The models we have used to create our forecasts have gotten better and better over the last couple of decades, so much so that at the hurricane center, our track forecasts have improved by more than 50 percent,” said Brown. “Over time, we’ve done the verification and the NHC forecasts typically beat all of the individual models over the course of the season.”
Storm surge has been a particular target. Nine of ten deaths during a storm are from water and not wind. Despite massive swells in the Keys during Irma, there is no confirmed loss of life due to surge.
“The weather service has been really trying to better communicate that storm surge threat,” said Brown. “Last year, we felt like that really did help make a difference.”
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So can forecasting get better this season?
“One of the big issues we have is trying to forecast rapid strengthening. We still have a long way to go to be able to forecast when a storm goes from a category one to a category five within a day or so,” said Brown.
In the meantime, hurricane season means long hours for Brown and his team, but its work with a clear purpose.
“We’re making a forecast because we want folks to be prepared,” said Brown. “We want folks to get out of harm’s way. Be ready! Be ready this hurricane season.
