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NBC 6 Chief Meteorologist John Morales Provides Update on Atlantic Tropics

What an interesting couple of weeks we've had in the Atlantic. It started Aug. 18 with the rapid intensification and quick death (a week later) of Danny. Immediately afterwards, Erika formed but never really got its act together in the Caribbean. And finally this last weekend, Fred formed just off the coast of Africa.

Fred strengthened so quickly that it set the record as the farthest east forming hurricane on record in the tropical Atlantic. Fred is also the first hurricane to cross the Cape Verde Islands since 1892, and provided the first ever satellite pictures of a hurricane over that part of the world.

With so much going on in the Atlantic and the historical peak of the season still to come on Sept. 8, you may biting your nails while looking 3,000-4,000 miles east to see what's next. But believe it or not, it may not exactly go gangbusters in the main development region (MDR) of the tropical Atlantic. The MDR is the area that extends from the west coast of Africa to the Lesser Antilles. In August and September this is the prime location for the strongest hurricanes of the year to form.

On Monday, there were several vigorous tropical waves lined up over the African continent behind Fred ready to move westward into the Atlantic. But through Sept. 14 the global models are only developing one of those to weak tropical storm intensity before dying out a good 1,000 miles east of the Antilles. None of the others are expected to develop. Only a system further north in the Atlantic near Bermuda seems to have a better chance for tropical formation, but it would then move away from the Caribbean and the U.S.

A short term forecast for the first half of September in the tropics issued by Colorado State University is predicting below average levels of tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic basin (through 9/14). The ongoing El Niño is playing a key role by favoring thunderstorm growth in other parts of the world (mainly the Pacific Ocean) instead of the Atlantic. While the sea surface temperatures in the MDR have warmed considerably, there's still quite a bit of dry Saharan air present in the area.

So we will keep our eyes open, but don't expect much during the peak period of the Atlantic hurricane season.

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