Miami

What Has to Happen for the Dolphins to Be a Playoff Team

The Dolphins defense is going to be good.

In a sport that's hard to predict, that's almost a certainty. You don't pay Ndamukong Suh $114 million to be decent. If Suh and his fellow defensive starters stay healthy, the Dolphins will have a menacing pass rush and be strong against the run.

So, the Dolphins playoffs hopes (and Joe Philbin's job security) will likely come down to this: Is the Dolphins offense above average?

They don't have to be elite. Just above-average.

And for that to happen, a few things need to change this season.

It's true that Ryan Tannehill improved in 2014. His completion percentage went up. His interceptions went down. But, there are a few troubling numbers that need to get fixed for the Dolphins to become a contender:

Miami had only 1 touchdown pass of 25 yards or more (fewest in the NFL)

Miami had only 4 non-red zone touchdowns (fewest in the NFL)

Tannehill's longest completion was 50 yards (shortest of any starter in the NFL)

The Dolphins offense has relied on long methodical drives. They rarely scored on quick strikes.

Will that change in 2015? Will they have more success throwing downfield? Will the Dolphins coaches be willing to take more chances deep?

When I asked Philbin that question before the season, he was non-committal: "Sure, if we get in the right situation, the right opportunity, the right match-up."

OK fine. But If Tannehill is truly taking another step forward as a QB, he has to do what the other top tier QB's do. Make plays downfield.

Here's the stat to watch: Yards per attempt.

It's a simple and yet effective way to measure a QB's success. How many yards does that QB produce every time he throws the ball? Last season, Tannehill was 27th in YPA at 6.9. That's less than Alex Smith. That's equal to Geno Smith. That's not good enough.

To be fair, the 2015 season doesn't all hinge on Tannehill.

The Dolphins MUST use their #1 Running Back Lamar Miller more effectively.

Miller averaged more yards per carry (5.1) than DeMarco Murray, Marshawn Lynch or Jamaal Charles.

Out of all backs with 100 or more carries, Miller ranked 1st in percentage of runs to go for five or more yards (43.1 percent) and 4th in percentage of runs to go for 10 or more yards (14.4 percent). **Stat via Rotoworld.com

So why did Miller only rush for 68.7 yards per game (13th in the NFL)?

The obvious answer is that he didn't get enough carries. He only averaged 13.5 per game.

The Miami coaches might explain that by showing you how Miller's production dropped off as his workload increased during games.

So what's the solution? First, Miller said he's been working to find the right playing weight to stay fresh later in games. But ultimately, it's up to the Dolphins coaching staff to put their trust in Miller by giving him more carries.

They have to at least try it early in the season.

If he proves he can handle the extra carries without wearing down, the running game benefits. If he continues to show a drop-off later in games, Miami has to find a capable backup, whether it's Damien Williams, LaMike James, or even rookie Jay Ajayi (once he returns from the injured list in Week 8).

It's all connected. A more productive running game (and specifically a better run/pass ratio) will give Tannehill more opportunities to go downfield. A more vertical passing game will lead to a better offense.

And a better offense means a Dolphins team poised for a playoff run.

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