Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis will try to unseat former President Donald Trump for the GOP Nomination for president — to do this, longtime political experts tell NBC6 DeSantis will have to perform well in Iowa, which holds its caucuses in early January 2024.
In nearly five decades, no candidate has received the Republican nomination for president without coming in first or second in one of the first two voting states: Iowa or New Hampshire.
For many, the Iowa Caucuses are a time capsule. In a time when most candidates prefer to campaign by television advertisement, Iowa requires a candidate to shake hands, listen to people, and spend time engaging with voters in small groups. DeSantis has already made several trips to the midwestern state.
"If you win Iowa out of the gate as a candidate, it gives you momentum," said Matt Terrill from Firehouse Strategies, who was worked multiple races in Iowa and was the chief of staff for the Marco Rubio campaign for President in 2016. "Typically, many donors and delegates and voters will gravitate towards the candidate who has momentum."
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In 2016, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz used a win in the Iowa Caucuses to propel him all the way to a number two finish at the GOP Convention in Cleveland. Many high-level Cruz staffers in Iowa then are now working for the group supporting DeSantis, Never Back Down.
Trump came in second in Iowa in 2016 and refused to concede to Sen. Cruz. He will lean on his large amount of contacts built up over two runs for president.
Florida Sen. Marco Rubio came in third seven years ago, following Trump by one percentage point.
“You just have to have a strong field team. And that really matters to be successful in the Iowa caucuses,” Terrill said.
A common strategy that shows a candidate is committed to the state is to travel to all of Iowa’s 99 counties. Then come January, on caucus day, a campaign will try to recruit a person to pitch its candidate before voters in the hundreds of precincts around the state.
“It’s Iowa or bust,” said Mike Hernandez, NBC6 political analyst.
“We’re not easily persuaded. Some candidates find that out the hard way. The good ones understand that they have to be here, look people in the eye, and answer people’s questions,” said David Oman, the former co-chair of the Iowa GOP and chief of staff to two Iowa governors.
Oman says Trump has huge name recognition in the state but the Florida governor has made a good first impression. The governor will need to make inroads with voters looking for a fresh face with less baggage – and beat out the other competitors, Sen. Tim Scott and former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson.
But experts tell NBC 6 that DeSantis may have to spend more time in Iowa at the expense of his home state of Florida.
“He should act like he’s running for Iowa governor. Act like you’re running a governor campaign. Be everywhere. Meet people,” Oman said.
If DeSantis survives Iowa and New Hampshire, there will likely be a big showdown in the middle of March when a bunch of states hold primaries including the home of both the governor and former president – Florida.
