All eyes are on the Tropics as we continue to monitor a disturbance that now has an 80% chance of development over the next five days near the Bahamas.
Although our computer models are all over the place, our confidence is quite high that a tropical or sub-tropical storm could form by midweek over the Bahamas and then move west toward the east coast of Florida.
If this system can get to tropical or sub-tropical storm status, it would get the name Nicole, but that’s a long way off and there are many big questions. As of this evening, we are not forecasting a high impact event here in South Florida.
Folks living north of us have to keep a much closer eye on this system. If the system stays just offshore or stays to our north, it will keep the worst weather away from us.
Get South Florida local news, weather forecasts and entertainment stories to your inbox. Sign up for NBC South Florida newsletters.
If the storm tracks south, that is when this becomes a much more serious situation for South Florida, but that is not our forecast at this time. But regardless of exact track and intensity, our forecast remains unchanged: periods of heavy rain Wednesday and Thursday along with gusty winds.
Marine conditions will be dangerous and with the King Tides, any rain that falls will have a tough time draining, so inland and coastal flooding could be the biggest impact.
There is also the chance that this storm intensifies but curls up the east coast of Florida before it gets anywhere near us.
That would limit both the rain and wind. But for now, we are forecasting a windy & wet midweek. A cold front arrives on Saturday and should bring some gorgeous weather Sunday into Monday.