Fiona has a chance to flourish on Saturday, and that could be bad news for Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic.
Ever since Tropical Storm Fiona developed on Wednesday night, upper level wind shear has been keeping the storm in check. The constant punches from those westerly winds aloft kept displacing the thunderstorms to the east, preventing them from getting wrapped around the center of circulation.
Those hostile winds are still present on Saturday, but they are starting to weaken. Computer forecast models agree that the winds aloft will continue to become more favorable for Fiona’s core to become more symmetric, which invariably leads to intensification. In response, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) has issued a Hurricane Warning for Puerto Rico and a Hurricane Watch for the eastern third of the Dominican Republic. The watch implies that hurricane conditions are possible to occur in that country starting late Sunday into Monday. It is extremely likely that the watch will be upgraded to a Hurricane Warning to match Puerto Rico's.
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In the case of Puerto Rico, Fiona's historically disheveled structure has brought some unwelcome changes. Aircraft reconnaissance on Saturday morning found that the center of Fiona had jumped further north than anticipated. Now the forecast track calls for a strengthening Fiona to clip the west part of Puerto Rico before crossing the Mona Passage and potentially clipping the Dominican Republic too.
Tropical storm conditions were observed in the Leeward and Virgin Islands overnight into early Saturday. These will spread westward into Puerto Rico by Saturday night. On Sunday, Fiona is expected to strengthen, possibly in rapid fashion, making things worse.
Any mention of the word hurricane makes people think of damaging winds. And this storm’s winds are capable of some damage, though it would be a far cry from more recent catastrophic events—namely Hurricane Maria. Nevertheless, both in Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic, widespread power outages are highly probable this weekend.
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Despite that worry, excessive rain continues to be the greatest concern with Fiona. Rain accumulation forecasts have been trending in the wrong direction, and now the Dominican Republic could see a foot of precipitation, while Puerto Rico’s rain could be of even more epic proportions -- 20 inches! This would undoubtedly lead to massive flash flooding on both locations.
For the Bahamas and Florida, the official NHC forecast has Fiona turning northwest and out to sea. Confidence that the future hurricane will turn north has increased considerably. On the NHC track, only the eastern Bahamas might have to tangle with Fiona’s core. Additionally, the topography of Hispaniola could play a role in the systems intensity before Fiona reaches the area near or west of the Turks & Caicos.
While It’s still advisable for Floridians to check in once a day on Fiona’s progress, all indications are that the hurricane’s path will be hundreds of miles distant from the Sunshine State. Given our good fortune, perhaps we can start thinking of how we could help victims of what could well be the first hurricane to hit Puerto Rico since Hurricane Maria five years ago, and the Dominican Republic since Hurricane Jeanne in 2004.
