What to Know
- New estimate puts Florida's coronavirus peak at April 21
- The estimate still predicts around 6,800 people will die in Florida from COVID-19
- The number of COVID-19 deaths in the United States may reach about 81,000, the estimate says
The number of COVID-19 deaths in the United States may reach about 81,000, a 13-percent decrease from last week's estimate from the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation.
The main reason, the researchers say, is evidence social distancing is having a big impact.
At the state level, the institute now estimates demand in Florida for hospital resources will peak on April 21, 12 days sooner than it was predicting last week.
The models are based in part on data from areas already hit with the virus, and how and when those areas instituted school closures, business closures and social distancing.
They predict Florida will have enough overall hospital beds to handle that peak in patients, although it may need an additional 769 intensive care unit beds.
The numbers are just estimates and include wide margins of uncertainty, so the the peak dates and numbers will likely change, perhaps significantly.
But researchers report the numbers coming down as more data is coming in showing fewer people dying and patients being discharged from hospitals sooner than previously anticipated -- as long as they are not admitted into ICUs.
In Florida, though, the number of estimated deaths through the virus' "first wave," ending August 4, did not change by much in the institue's latest revision Sunday night.
It still predicts around 6,800 people will die in Florida, 242 of them on what they believe will be the peak date, April 21.