The glow hasn't even worn off yet, and already the experts are trying to harsh our buzz from the Dolphins' weekend acquisition of Karlos Dansby.
K.C. Joyner, ESPN's "Football Scientist" (it comes with a beaker and everything!), says the Dolphins didn't significantly upgrade in acquiring Dansby. In fact, he claims the $22 million man is only good for an extra 5-8 stops per season.
There is very little to indicate that Dansby will be a significant upgrade over the recently released Akin Ayodele. Dansby is somewhat better at stopping the run (he has historically graded out around 5 percentage points higher than Ayodele in "point of attack" win percentage) but that really doesn't mean a whole lot in the grand scheme of things. Inside linebackers usually see around 100-150 POA blocks a year, so a 5 percent increase here means that Dansby will stop somewhere between five to eight runs that Ayodele wouldn't have.
Joyner does have a point, in that an ILB who is only "somewhat better" at stopping the run would be a marginal upgrade. Inside linebacker isn't a position of impact like defensive end or cornerback, and much of their success depends on scheme.
However, stopping the run at the point of attack wasn't really the problem with Ayodele, and it's not the reason the Fins went after Dansby. Where Ayodele struggled -- where the Dolphins as a whole struggled -- and where Dansby's particular skills come in handy is in coverage. Joyner's stats don't reflect that, letting us reject his take and not just because we want to (we don't get a whole lot of happy down here these days.)
Dansby's third down play notched him 318 more snaps that Ayodele last season, but even with more work he allowed just 4.9 yards after catch while Ayodele, too slow to chase down opponents, allowed more than 11. Dansby saw 15% fewer passes completed in coverage than Ayodele (85%), keeping receptions down to a 7-yard average compared with Ayodele's 14.
Remember seeing tight ends roam the middle at will last year? Remember how that killed the Dolphins, game after game? Dansby, whom the Cardinals often used as a really big safety, can change that. That's why he's not a lateral move.
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"He's an all-around linebacker," his former Arizona teammate Antrel Rolle told our own Joe Rose. "There's times that we dropped him back at safety and I even went to linebacker and we didn't miss a beat. That alone tells a lot about a guy."
It does indeed. Put that in your lab and smoke it, mister.
