John Morales

Updated Hurricane Forecasts Somewhat Encouraging But Stay Alert: Morales

No hurricanes have formed in the Atlantic this year. According to NOAA there will be between six and ten of them, half of those reaching major hurricane status. From that point of view, we may have to navigate a worrisome stretch from now until November

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Seasonal hurricane forecasters updated their projections for the 2022 Atlantic season on Thursday. Both the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and Colorado State University, considered two of the leading institutions for this type of forecast, still see 2022 as a year that will end up being more active.

Just not hyperactive.

NOAA forecasters said Thursday that there a slightly better chance, 30%, that we will end up with an average year. Normally, 14 tropical storms form in the Atlantic each year, with seven of those becoming hurricanes, and three of the seven reaching dangerous major hurricane status.

But the experts at NOAA still calculate that there’s a 60% chance for an above normal season, with 14 to 20 tropical storms. Keep in mind that we’ve already had three — Alex, Bonnie, and Colin — so that if NOAA’s forecast were accurate then we still have 11 to 17 tropical storms to get through.

No hurricanes have formed in the Atlantic this year. According to NOAA there will be between six and ten of them, half of those reaching major hurricane status. From that point of view, we may have to navigate a worrisome stretch from now until November.

It’s been a minute since there have been any named storms in the Atlantic. Colin dissipated on July 3rd. But June and July are not good predictors of what might occur from August onward.

Ninety percent of tropical activity in the Atlantic historically happens after August 1st.

Meanwhile, forecasters at Colorado State University, led by Dr. Phil Klotzbach, made bigger cuts to their forecast. Yes, CSU is still calling for an active season with a total of 18 tropical storms, eight hurricanes of which half would reach major hurricane strength.

But I dug a bit further and found some pretty significant changes to their previous projections.

CSU’s previous update was in early July. At the time their forecast called for a 2022 Atlantic hurricane season in which there would be nearly 50% more "hurricane days" as compared to normal. Hurricane days is simply a measure of how many days each season there are active hurricanes in the Atlantic basin. Thursday’s updated forecast only calls for 11% more hurricane days than normal.

In the all-important "major hurricane days" category, which, of course, refers to the total number of days this season with the often-catastrophic category 3, 4 and 5 hurricanes, there’s been a huge cut. In July CSU predicted 49% more major hurricane days than normal. Now they’ve reduced that to just 8% above normal!

Finally, a more technical but great measure for tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic is Accumulated Cyclone Energy, or ACE. This index takes into account the number and the strength of tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic during the course of a season.

Previously, CSU was forecasting 46% more ACE in 2022 compared to the historical average. Thursday’s update cut that to 22% more ACE than normal.

The caveat—cliché or not, is that it only takes one. Category 5 Hurricane Andrew formed in a very inactive year yet devastated southern Miami-Dade County and the Upper Florida Keys.

Nevertheless, it’s somewhat encouraging to see that the 2022 season has a chance of being closer to normal instead of the downright silly number of storms we had seen in 2020 and 2021.

Stay alert and ready. The heart of the season lays ahead.

John Morales is NBC 6's hurricane specialist.

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