On Wednesday I wrote "My best advice is to look more at the present condition and evolution of Erika instead of individual models." It's about reality versus models, and even versus official forecasts.
The center of extremely disorganized Erika has been hard to find Thursday, even though she's within radar range. The Hurricane Hunter reported the position of the center at 7:56 a.m. to be further south than expected. It also showed the highest winds (at flight level) to be over 100 miles to the southeast of the reported center, and a surface wind estimate of a measly 36 mph.
Upper level wind shear continues to greatly impact Erika's ability to stay in one piece, while there is still some dry air in the vicinity. The early run of the morning models does place the center further south, and therefore their forecast tracks now take the storm over or just south of Puerto Rico, then over or just north of the Dominican Republic. This increases the chance for greater wind gusts in those locations, though remember we're not dealing with a strong system to begin with, nor am I expecting it to intensify given it's presently poor condition.
The heaviest rain is southeast of the supposed center, which may mean that Puerto Rico will miss out on the heaviest precipitation, while the Dominican Republic could "benefit" from heavier downpours.
A word of caution, though. Dominica in the Lesser Antilles saw nearly nine inches of rain in six hours last night which led to flash flooding. Those living in flood prone areas need to stay safe and follow recommendations from local authorities.
Remember, rainfall rates are often enhanced by mountainous terrain. Which brings me to my next point: With Erika now likely to pass over either or both Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic, there are mountains ranging from 4,000 to 10,000 feet in her path. This now adds another hurdle in Erika's attempt to emerge out of the Caribbean alive.
Therefore, from the Bahamas and Florida's perspective, I'll reiterate what I've said before: If and when there's a viable tropical cyclone in the waters east of the Bahamas, THEN we start making reliable forecasts for the future path and intensity.
For the time being, all of the projections we've seen for this weekend and next week are subject to tremendous errors but have served as an important reminder that Florida is very much in hurricane alley, despite not having had one in 10 years.
Local
Did you do what I suggested Wednesday? Do you now have a storm action plan? Did you check your address in regards to evacuation zones? Do you know how you'd protect your home against winds? Did you make a list of supplies you may need?
If any part of Florida was to be placed under a hurricane watch, it would likely not happen until Saturday. A warning, should one ever come, would come later Saturday or at the latest very early Sunday. Further preparedness steps would be needed then.
But I end with the present reality of a disorganized blob of weather now in the northeastern Caribbean with no signs of strengthening (central pressure remains at 1006 millibars) and facing persistent strong challenges from shear, dry air, and soon big mountains.
Erika is bigger than Danny, and she's been resilient, but the survival of this storm is still in question.
