Decision 2020

Biden Takes Slight Lead in Florida Over Trump in Final NBC News/Marist Poll

The NBC News/Marist poll of Florida was conducted – by cell phone and landline interviews – from Oct. 25-27 of 743 likely voters

NBC Universal, Inc.

What to Know

  • Biden holds a 51 to 47 percent lead in the Sunshine State, which is within the poll’s 4.4 percent margin of error
  • It’s a three percent jump for the former Vice President, who was tied with Trump at 48 percent each in the September poll
  • Both candidates are scheduled to be in Florida on Thursday with Biden holding an event in Broward County

Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden holds a slight lead over President Donald Trump in the all important swing state of Florida, according to the final NBC News/Marist poll before next Tuesday’s Election Day.

Biden holds a 51 to 47 percent lead in the Sunshine State, which is within the poll’s 4.4 percent margin of error. It’s a three percent jump for the former Vice President, who was tied with Trump at 48 percent each in the September poll.

Both candidates are scheduled to be in Florida on Thursday with Biden holding an event in Broward County and both candidates holding events in Tampa.

Biden holds double digit leads among Black voters (84 percent to 14), white voters with college degrees (58 percent to 40), women (57 percent to 41), and independents (55 percent to 41) while also holding a 53 to 46 percent lead with seniors, seeing an increase with the last two groups over September’s poll.

Trump holds a lead among Latino voters (52 percent to 46), white voters (52 percent to 45), men (54 percent to 44) and whites without college degrees (62 percent to 36).

The poll shows 47 percent of likely voters approve of President Trump’s job while 50 percent disapprove, up from a 48 percent disapproval rating in September. Trump also saw his favorable rating go down from 47 percent to 45 percent in the latest poll.

Biden’s favorable rating went up from 46 percent to 48 percent.

The NBC News/Marist poll of Florida was conducted – by cell phone and landline interviews – from Oct. 25-27 of 743 likely voters.

Thirty-three percent of likely voters identify as Republican, 29 percent are Democrats and 36 percent are independents. 42 percent of all likely voters hold college degrees, while whites with college degrees make up 27 percent of the likely voter sample.

19 percent of the likely voters surveyed come from the Panhandle region of the state, 19 percent are from Orlando and the central coast, 16 percent are from the Tampa area, 19 percent are from the central part of the state and 27 percent are from the Miami and Florida Keys areas.

A Telemundo Poll conducted by Mason-Dixon and released Thursday shows 48% of Hispanic voters back Biden compared to 43% for Trump, with 7% undecided and 2% supporting another candidate.

The poll of 500 registered Hispanic voters from across the Sunshine State was done by phone from Oct. 23 through Oct. 26, with all 500 indicating they were likely to vote in the general election on Nov. 3. The margin for error was plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.

Cuban voters continue to support Trump (71% to 23%) while Puerto Rican voters support Biden (66% to 23%).

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