The next named systems of the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season could be forming within days, but forecasts do not have any potential systems impacting South Florida at this time.
Potential Tropical Cyclone Two is moving across the northern coast of Venezuela with tropical storm winds (40 mph) but no center of circulation. It was located 105 miles west of Trinidad and is moving west-northwest at 26 mph.
But Tropical Storm Bonnie is likely to form in the coming days with expectations that the season’s first Atlantic hurricane could form by Friday and approach Nicaragua.
A second area of development in the Gulf will essentially be a big rain storm for parts of Texas.
A third area of development is the one we will monitor in the coming days. It now has a 30% chance of becoming a depression over the next five days as it drifts northwest toward Florida. Many questions remain this far out.
One thing that seems to be likely is the moisture from this wave not reaching South Florida until at least Tuesday or Wednesday, after the 4th of July. Our Euro model shows some enhanced moisture on Tuesday and nothing more. Our GFS model is more aggressive with a stronger system and much more intense tropical moisture on Wednesday.
There are no indications this system will develop into a tropical storm at this time, but given some of our models’ latest runs, we’ll keep an eye on it in the coming days to see if it has enough time to develop into anything other than just a blob of rain.
The 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season officially began June 1 with researchers predicting an "above-normal" year.
The first named system occurred in early June, when Tropical Storm Alex formed off Florida's east coast after moving across the state, dropping massive rainfall and causing flooding in South Florida as Potential Tropical Cyclone One.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's averages for the Atlantic hurricane season is 14 named storms and seven hurricanes. The average for major hurricanes is three.
Last month, NOAA released their predictions for this year, calling for an "above-normal" 2022 with 14-21 named storms expected.