What to Know
A disturbance in the northwestern Caribbean seas has a low chance of developing into a tropical system over the next five days
Conditions are unfavorable for development but locally it will mean that periods of heavy rain will remain in our forecast
A weak low in the northwestern Caribbean Sea has formed and has a medium chance of developing into a tropical system.
In the short term, the National Hurricane Center cites a zero chance for development as the environment remains prohibitive.
"Little development is expected during the next couple of days due to strong upper-level winds and proximity to the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico," NHC said in a statement. "However, gradual subtropical or tropical development is possible late this week while the system moves slowly into the central or eastern Gulf of Mexico."
The system is expected to produce locally heavy rainfall in western Cuba, the Cayman Islands and much of Florida for several days.
The NHC is posting a 40 percent chance for development in the Gulf this weekend. The model spread is too wide and the environment too hostile right now to pin anything down on what might happen this weekend.
However, regardless of development or not, the rainy forecast for South Florida will hold well into Memorial Day weekend - with some locations possibly expecting as much as four inches of rain between Thursday and Sunday and other areas maybe getting even more.