So far this season, the tropics have been relatively quiet because of all of the Saharan dust. But we are going to start to see some changes over the next couple of weeks.
We have had a relatively slow start to the season, but the environment for the storms that did develop has aided in intense activity.
Beryl broke multiple records by being the first Category 4 hurricane in the month of June and then becoming the earliest Category 5 storm on record.
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WATCH HEREWith the Saharan dust and the dominating ridge in the Atlantic, the tropical waves have been fizzled out before taking on true tropical characteristics.
Now, our first wave since Beryl is being monitored in the tropics.
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There are two waves in the open Atlantic waters even with Saharan dust to the north. The leading one is now being monitored by the National Hurricane Center.
In the immediate 2-day forecast, the chance of development is 0 percent, and in the longer range forecast, the chance of development is 20 percent.
Even though it might not take on a lowering pressure center right away, tropical moisture is headed for the Lesser Antilles. This means rain and storms are expected through the arc of islands from the Leeward Islands to Puerto Rico and west.
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The environment that this wave is moving into has the warm sea-surface waters to help fuel the storm. It will be working against the Saharan dust to the north and a few pockets of wind shear.
As we saw with Beryl, the storms can maneuver and track around the threatening factors and still hold structure if they strengthen enough.
In the long range, it is worth noting that the path could still change. As of now, South Florida should be watching this storm for tropical moisture. We’ve seen waves come through already this year and ramp up our rain chances.
We'll keep you updated.
